Despite the economic downturn, the new turbines just keep on coming. Beyond the Vestas V112, we've seen a spate of new announcements this year, including rotor extensions on the Siemens 2.3, Nordex 2.3, and of course the REpower 3.X (complete with Star Wars style flash website). What's going on? With orders down 50-70%, staff reductions of 10-20%, and rumors of profit warnings - is this the time to be launching new products?
Perhaps more than ever. Why? Take a look at the target markets for these machines:
Mature West Europe. These markets are now asking for 3 MW and larger machines at Class III sites, with 100 meter and higher towers. The larger rotors offer an incremental step towards these markets. A cheaper approach than going for a 6 MW monster at 138 meter hub height.
High wind North America. Canada, US, maybe Mexico are still packed with sites requiring Class I machines. Scaling a turbine up to 3 MW, in REpower's case, while keeping the rotor size under 110 meters may be a strong bet this market.
Emerging markets. This is a new one. Typically you're used to seeing aging sub 1 MW models shipped off, or licensed, to Africa Middle East, Asia, or Latin America where they can withstand winds topping 10 m/s. Vestas' V60 is a new take on its older V50 model - will Gamesa take a cue with its G52 offer in China? This is where the growth is, and a well-proven smaller turbine may fit this opportunity.
The billions in profits these WT suppliers generated in the last two years with rising prices will now find their way into the market through these R&D investments. The appetite for any wind turbines, let alone unproven new ones with bells and whistles, is at a three year low in Europe and the US. Nevertheless, now is the time to look further out-with most of these machines aiming for serial production and major rollouts by 2010.
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