While the industry continues to underline a turbine shortage, utility and IPP heavyweights are scoring more product by the bushel - with less than a year lead time. How is it that, despite the quarterly advisories that until 2009 or later there's no capacity available to supply more turbines, customers such as EDP can step in and buy 500 MW in the next 24 months from GE? How about 201 MW from Vestas just 18 months before delivery?
For those mid-size players stuck with turbine-less projects, or excruciatingly long lead times on their 2006 orders, the answer is clear: order intake strategy. With an eye on building competition in markets like the US, Europe and China, suppliers are turning away riskier non-strategic customers, while bending over backwards to meet the needs of utility market leaders.
The increase in turbine prices due to component shortages, and lack of product availability have been the supply side's argument for tight delivery since January 2006. But with recent deals, and continued capacity build up, it seems we're seeing some daylight on the whole supply crunch--or at least clarity in strategic account management. Turbine OEMs will have to tread carefully in to 2009-2010 when more product hits the market and control shifts away from the seller. While no two customers are equal, they all deserve honesty about availability.
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