Back for another EWEC show, this time Milan. The fears in February 2006 of turbine shortage were confirmed time and again over the past 13 months, as one OEM after another reported component unavailability, challenges delivering. But we are beginning to see a light at the end of the tunnel:
- Gearbox capacity may be doubling to well over 22 GW by 2009 if you talk with big suppliers such as Winergy, Hansen.
- Blade supply build out is bursting, with dozens of new plants going into the US, China, plus European expansions (Vestas, Acciona, LM all adding capacity recently).
- 'Component secured' turbine supply announcements are generally increasing (Gamesa, Vestas) to indicate tighter management and transparency of the critical path for assembly.
That said, the big X factor still appears to be bearings. As a non wind-specific component, what is actually being made available for the wind industry seems a bit of a guess. Wind turbine bearing supply is more a question of order book management than capacity increase for non specialty bearings like those used in gearboxes. This will be a key pinch point to watch. OEMs report adding new supply options wherever they can, from Europe to Asia and anywhere in between. In any case, the message is to 'bear with' the bearings issue - it's being sorted out, orders still being taken, and as turbine OEMs become better, more predictable customers for components, the suppliers will respond.
Comments