The question is not if but when. When will a low cost Chinese turbine supplier arise with a clone 2.0 MW machine, undercutting European and US manufacturers globally?
Acciona Energía has already begun accelerating the process with the Ingetur- CASC partnership to license and manufacture its 1.5 MW machine. At the same time, Gamesa, REPower, Vestas and LM Glasfiber are all manufacturing in China to cover 70-80% local content requirements, with varying levels of technology transfer. Vestas even plans to use China as a manufacturing hub to serve Asia and the US.
Market conditions are evolving for such a low cost Chinese turbine supplier to materialize. The government has upped wind targets to 30,000 MW, and it's only a matter of time before some ex-employees of a western supplier put together a manufacturer able to compete on a global scale. China is already the world leader in micro turbine manufacturing. If only they would hurry up with some large turbine gearbox capacity...
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